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Here’s what the coronavirus ‘wave’ in Mass. looks like

  • Posted by Health News March 31, 2020 - Filed in Health - 20,180 views

    Updated projections show later surge peak, on April 26, in Mass.

    Latest projected death toll 6,739, down from high of 8,254; projected ICU number remains same

    NOTE: The data in this report was updated April 10. Previous versions of this post had earlier data. 

    The coronavirus surge, or wave, is now expected to reach its peak on April 26 in Massachusetts, according to projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)  at the University of Washington. The April 8 projections showed it peaking on April 20.

    As of April 10, the data projects that on April 26, the Commonwealth will require beds for 8,105 patients, including 1,873 in intensive care. The previous update, on April 8, projected 8,028 patients, including the same number in ICU. Both of those numbers exceed the number available in Massachusetts, where there are 4,848 total beds and 277 available in ICUs.

    A total of 6,739 people will die from coronavirus in Massachusetts, the projections show. The total on March 30 was 56. April 1 projections were for 2,381; April 5, 8,254; April 8, 5,625.

    The data also estimates 201 people in Massachusetts will die on April 27, and the number will then start to slowly decrease, dropping to zero on June 13.

    The study was produced by Christopher J.L. Murray, Professor and IHME Director of the Department of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington.

    The goal of the study was to “determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the US."

    Murray’s study projects 1,637 ventilators will be needed on April 26, up slightly from the April 8 projection.

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